Galatasaray 2-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Galatasaray at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to NEF Stadyumu to face Galatasaray in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Galatasaray have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at NEF Stadyumu, Galatasaray have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Galatasaray against 1.80 for Beşiktaş. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Galatasaray register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Beşiktaş in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Galatasaray, 1 for Beşiktaş and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2022, ended 2–1 with Galatasaray winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Galatasaray — key trading statistics (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galatasaray 55% versus Beşiktaş 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 47% | Beşiktaş 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 1.63 xG and Beşiktaş 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 1.041 / defence 1.053 | Beşiktaş attack 1.083 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.329. Data: 49 Galatasaray games / 50 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 41% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 36%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Beşiktaş 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Galatasaray are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Galatasaray if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Galatasaray 70% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: NEF Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 41% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Galatasaray 1.63 / Beşiktaş 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 1.041 / def 1.053 | Beşiktaş attack 1.083 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Beşiktaş xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at NEF Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş?
Galatasaray 2 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at NEF Stadyumu.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş part of?
Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 41% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Galatasaray and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Beşiktaş?
Record (2 meetings): Galatasaray 1W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Galatasaray and Beşiktaş in?
Galatasaray (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Galatasaray's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.08x) against Galatasaray's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
41%
2.46
24%
4.24
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
3.14
1.51
Beşiktaş xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
7%
14.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Galatasaray and 1.51 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Galatasaray's recent record stands at 20W 13D 16L from 49 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 11L across 49 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Galatasaray against 1.59 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Galatasaray have managed 12W 4D 7L from 23 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beşiktaş's away record stands at 7W 9D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Galatasaray are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.59 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galatasaray and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 20W 13D 16L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 20W 18D 11L in their last 49 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Beşiktaş away?
Galatasaray's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 1.74 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Galatasaray have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Galatasaray
1
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Galatasaray have won 6, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Beşiktaş 0-1 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Beşiktaş?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Galatasaray, 70% for Beşiktaş — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Galatasaray) and 52% (Beşiktaş).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galatasaray play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Galatasaray's games and 70% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Galatasaray vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Galatasaray's recent games and 52% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Galatasaray and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Galatasaray have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Galatasaray edge out Beşiktaş 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Beşiktaş 2-1 at NEF Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 1.63 xG and Beşiktaş 1.51 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Beşiktaş attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 41% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 36%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 47%, Beşiktaş 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Galatasaray 1.49 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Galatasaray win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.