Göztepe 3-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Göztepe at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Göztepe host Adana Demirspor at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 7 December 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Göztepe stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Göztepe at home: 5W 1D 0L from their last 6 home games — 2.67 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from their last 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Göztepe are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Adana Demirspor — last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Adana Demirspor away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Göztepe are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Göztepe, 1 for Adana Demirspor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2022, ended Göztepe 0–7 Adana Demirspor — a Adana Demirspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Göztepe in-play and half-time data (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Adana Demirspor in-play and half-time data (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 62% versus Adana Demirspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 62% | Adana Demirspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 2.22 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.129 / defence 0.936 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.706 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.290. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Göztepe's projected output up. Adana Demirspor's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Göztepe's last 13 games and Adana Demirspor's last 51.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 67% | Draw 21% | Adana Demirspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.49 | Draw 4.70 | Adana Demirspor 8.64. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (67%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Göztepe's last 6 home games and Adana Demirspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Göztepe 50% (last 6 home games) | Adana Demirspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 15 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 67% | Draw 21% | Adana Demirspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Göztepe 2.22 / Adana Demirspor 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.129 / def 0.936 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.706 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Adana Demirspor xG
53%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor FAQs
What time does Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Göztepe 3 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 15) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 67% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Göztepe and Adana Demirspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Göztepe's attack at 1.13x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Göztepe's last 13 games and Adana Demirspor's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.70
12%
8.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Göztepe xG
Total xG
3.07
0.85
Adana Demirspor xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
8.64
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
11%
9.23
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
1%
79.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.85 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 3D 4L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 0.15 PPG from 13 outings (0W 2D 11L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Göztepe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.47 PPG clear of Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Göztepe's home form reads 5W 1D 0L across their last 6 home games, a 2.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 0.33 points per game from their last 6 away games (0W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 0.69 scored and 2.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Göztepe (Home) vs Adana Demirspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Göztepe
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor Form FAQs
What form are Göztepe and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 2D 11L in their last 13 (0.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.67 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 4 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Göztepe have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 May 2022, when Adana Demirspor won Adana Demirspor 7-0 Göztepe.
Göztepe's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Göztepe
1
Draws
1
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Adana Demirspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Göztepe have won 2, Adana Demirspor have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 May 2025: Adana Demirspor 1-2 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Adana Demirspor?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 50%, Adana Demirspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Göztepe and 67% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Göztepe vs Adana Demirspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Göztepe and Adana Demirspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Göztepe's recent matches and 50% of Adana Demirspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Göztepe and Adana Demirspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Göztepe's matches and 67% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Göztepe and Adana Demirspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Göztepe's recent matches and 67% of Adana Demirspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Adana Demirspor 3-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 2.22 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.85 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.13 / defence 0.94 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.25, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 67% | Draw 21% | Adana Demirspor 12%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 62%, Adana Demirspor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.