Fenerbahçe 2-0 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fenerbahçe vs Yeni Malatyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi plays host to Fenerbahçe versus Yeni Malatyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 26 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fenerbahçe have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Fenerbahçe have gone 4W 3D 1L this season (8 games, 1.88 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.88 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fenerbahçe are significantly better at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.
Yeni Malatyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Fenerbahçe, 0.90 for Yeni Malatyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Yeni Malatyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 72% versus Yeni Malatyaspor 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 61% | Yeni Malatyaspor 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.37 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.189 / defence 1.238 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.525 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.132. Data: 18 Fenerbahçe games / 18 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 51% | Draw 31% | Yeni Malatyaspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Yeni Malatyaspor 5.26. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 75% | Yeni Malatyaspor 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 51% | Draw 31% | Yeni Malatyaspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.37 / Yeni Malatyaspor 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.189 / def 1.238 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.525 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 51% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Yeni Malatyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fenerbahçe's attack at 1.19x the league average against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Yeni Malatyaspor's attack (0.53x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
51%
1.98
31%
3.26
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.10
0.74
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
5%
20.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.74 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 18 games, going 8W 5D 5L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Yeni Malatyaspor sit at 0.83 PPG from 18 outings (4W 3D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Yeni Malatyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 4W 3D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Yeni Malatyaspor have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 0.89 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 games (1.61 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 3D 11L in their last 18 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Yeni Malatyaspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 1.88 PPG; Yeni Malatyaspor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Fenerbahçe
0
Draws
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 2, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 0-5 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Yeni Malatyaspor tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 75%, Yeni Malatyaspor 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Fenerbahçe) and 12% (Yeni Malatyaspor).
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor in 38%; Yeni Malatyaspor in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 0% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Fenerbahçe's recent games and 12% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fenerbahçe and Yeni Malatyaspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Yeni Malatyaspor in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Yeni Malatyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Yeni Malatyaspor 2-0 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.37 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.74 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.19 / defence 1.24 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.53 / defence 1.00, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 51% | Draw 31% | Yeni Malatyaspor 19%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 61%, Yeni Malatyaspor 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.