Fenerbahçe 3-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Trabzonspor travel to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to take on Fenerbahçe. The game is scheduled for Thursday 18 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Fenerbahçe's home record at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Trabzonspor's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fenerbahçe have won 0, Trabzonspor 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Dec 2022, ended 0–2 with Trabzonspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fenerbahçe 63% and Trabzonspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 65% | Trabzonspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 3.14 xG and Trabzonspor 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.377 / defence 1.168 | Trabzonspor attack 0.795 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.388. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — their λ of 3.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Trabzonspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Fenerbahçe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Fenerbahçe games / 68 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 74% | Draw 14% | Trabzonspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.35 | Draw 7.14 | Trabzonspor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (74%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (3.14 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Trabzonspor lead the H2H ledger, but Fenerbahçe carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 50% | Trabzonspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Thursday 18 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 74% | Draw 14% | Trabzonspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 69% | xG Fenerbahçe 3.14 / Trabzonspor 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.377 / def 1.168 | Trabzonspor attack 0.795 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.14
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Trabzonspor xG
69%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 18 May 2023 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Fenerbahçe 3 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 74% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 12% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor?
Record (3 meetings): Fenerbahçe 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.38) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 3.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 4-1 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
74%
1.35
14%
7.27
12%
8.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
3 – 0
6.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.14
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
4.43
1.29
Trabzonspor xG
1.35
74%
Home win
7.27
14%
Draw
8.14
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
4%
23.08
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
1%
187.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 3.14 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.29 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 4.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 41W 15D 12L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 36W 18D 14L from 68 games, 1.85 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fenerbahçe on 2.03 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.03 PPG from 33 outings (20W 7D 6L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 14W 7D 12L from 33 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.69 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Trabzonspor in 60%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 41W 15D 12L in their last 68 games (2.03 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 36W 18D 14L in their last 68 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Trabzonspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.03 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fenerbahçe have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Fenerbahçe won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 6, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 58%, Trabzonspor 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fenerbahçe and 64% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Fenerbahçe's games and 70% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 64% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Trabzonspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Trabzonspor 3-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 3.14 xG and Trabzonspor 1.29 xG, a combined 4.43. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.38 / defence 1.17 against Trabzonspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.35, drawn from 69/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 74% | Draw 14% | Trabzonspor 12%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 65%, Trabzonspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fenerbahçe 2.03 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fenerbahçe win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.