Fenerbahçe 2-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Hatayspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 January 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Fenerbahçe have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
Hatayspor (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Fenerbahçe's 2.30 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Fenerbahçe have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 6 meetings, with Hatayspor managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Fenerbahçe — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 54% versus Hatayspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 65% | Hatayspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.35 xG and Hatayspor 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.317 / defence 0.835 | Hatayspor attack 0.824 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.216. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Fenerbahçe games / 54 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 70% | Draw 20% | Hatayspor 10%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Hatayspor 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 40% | Hatayspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 70% | Draw 20% | Hatayspor 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 53% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.35 / Hatayspor 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.317 / def 0.835 | Hatayspor attack 0.824 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Hatayspor xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 January 2025 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 70% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 10% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor?
Record (6 meetings): Fenerbahçe 6W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.82x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
70%
1.44
20%
4.93
10%
9.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.19
0.84
Hatayspor xG
1.44
70%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
9.94
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
10%
10.52
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
1%
104.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.84 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 54 games, going 42W 9D 3L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.93 PPG from 54 outings (10W 20D 24L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.57 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 21W 3D 2L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.58 points per game from 26 outings (2W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.57 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.09 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 42W 9D 3L in their last 54 games (2.50 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 10W 20D 24L in their last 54 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Hatayspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.54 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 4-0 on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Fenerbahçe
0
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 7, Hatayspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2025, when Hatayspor 4-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 65%, Hatayspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Fenerbahçe and 42% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Hatayspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Hatayspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Fenerbahçe's games and 46% of Hatayspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 42% of Hatayspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Hatayspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Hatayspor 2-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.35 xG and Hatayspor 0.84 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.32 / defence 0.83 against Hatayspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 70% | Draw 20% | Hatayspor 10%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 65%, Hatayspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Hatayspor's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.