Eyüpspor 1-2 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eyüpspor host Rizespor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 10:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Eyüpspor have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from their last 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rizespor stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Rizespor's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Eyüpspor are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 58% versus Rizespor 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 42% | Rizespor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.66 xG and Rizespor 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.981 / defence 0.879 | Rizespor attack 0.805 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.280. Data: built from Eyüpspor's last 12 games and Rizespor's last 49.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 54% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 19%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.85 | Draw 3.72 | Rizespor 5.22. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eyüpspor 40% (last 5 home games) | Rizespor 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 13 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 54% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Eyüpspor 1.66 / Rizespor 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.981 / def 0.879 | Rizespor attack 0.805 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Rizespor xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Eyüpspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Eyüpspor 1 - 2 Rizespor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Rizespor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 13) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 54% chance of winning, Rizespor a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Eyüpspor and Rizespor will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Eyüpspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.98) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eyüpspor's last 12 games and Rizespor's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.72
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.57
0.91
Rizespor xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
4%
27.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.6 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eyüpspor vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 0.91 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 6W 4D 2L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Rizespor's form line: 4W 1D 7L from 12 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Eyüpspor are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rizespor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Eyüpspor have posted 2.60 PPG from their last 5 home games (4W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 3L from their last 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.83 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
Eyüpspor (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eyüpspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Eyüpspor vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Eyüpspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 games (1.83 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Rizespor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 2.60 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Rizespor in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 May 2026, when Eyüpspor won Eyüpspor 4-0 Rizespor.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
4
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Eyüpspor vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Rizespor?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Eyüpspor have won 1, Rizespor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Eyüpspor 0-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 40%, Rizespor 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Eyüpspor) and 60% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Rizespor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eyüpspor and Rizespor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 40% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Eyüpspor and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 60% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 80% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Eyüpspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Eyüpspor 1-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.66 xG and Rizespor 0.91 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rizespor outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Rizespor attack 0.81 / defence 1.13, drawn from 12/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 54% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 19%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Rizespor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 42%, Rizespor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Rizespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.