Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eyüpspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eyüpspor host Fenerbahçe at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Eyüpspor have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fenerbahçe — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Eyüpspor's 20% rate and Fenerbahçe's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Fenerbahçe have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Eyüpspor.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 0–8 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 38% versus Fenerbahçe 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Fenerbahçe 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 0.81 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.696 / defence 1.245 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.123 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Eyüpspor's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.737 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Eyüpspor games / 42 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 18% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 57%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Fenerbahçe 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 20% | Fenerbahçe 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 18% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Eyüpspor 0.81 / Fenerbahçe 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.696 / def 1.245 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.123 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Fenerbahçe xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 18% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 57% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (5 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 2 | Fenerbahçe 3W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.70) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
18%
5.45
25%
4.07
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.44
1.64
Fenerbahçe xG
5.45
18%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
4%
28.02
25%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 14.2 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.64 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor come into this having played 42 games, going 9W 9D 24L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.14 PPG from 42 outings (26W 12D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eyüpspor's home form reads 6W 4D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.00 points per game from 21 outings (12W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.36 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 24L in their last 42 games (0.86 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 26W 12D 4L in their last 42 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.05 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2026, when Fenerbahçe won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
2
Draws
3
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 5 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Fenerbahçe 8-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 38%, Fenerbahçe 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Eyüpspor) and 62% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 48%; Eyüpspor have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 43% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 62% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.