Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Erzurumspor FK versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 5 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Erzurumspor FK have collected 0.33 PPG across 3 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: L L D. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Erzurumspor FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Konyaspor arrive in superior form — a 0.67 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.33) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Erzurumspor FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzurumspor FK 33% versus Konyaspor 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Erzurumspor FK 67% | Konyaspor 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.27 xG and Konyaspor 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.696 / defence 1.407 | Konyaspor attack 1.087 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.243. Erzurumspor FK's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Erzurumspor FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Erzurumspor FK games / 37 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 26% | Draw 22% | Konyaspor 52%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Konyaspor 1.92. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Erzurumspor FK 33% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 26% | Draw 22% | Konyaspor 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Erzurumspor FK 1.27 / Konyaspor 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.696 / def 1.407 | Konyaspor attack 1.087 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Erzurumspor FK xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Konyaspor xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor kick off?
Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026.
What was the final score in Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor?
Erzurumspor FK 1 - 0 Konyaspor.
What competition is Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor part of?
Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Erzurumspor FK a 26% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Erzurumspor FK and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Konyaspor in?
Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Erzurumspor FK's attack at 0.70x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.09x) against Erzurumspor FK's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 3/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
26%
3.92
22%
4.47
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Erzurumspor FK xG
Total xG
3.17
1.90
Konyaspor xG
3.92
26%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
4%
26.20
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Erzurumspor FK and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.90 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Erzurumspor FK have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Konyaspor's form line: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.33 PPG for Erzurumspor FK against 0.00 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Erzurumspor FK are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzurumspor FK
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Erzurumspor FK have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Erzurumspor FK
0
Draws
0
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Konyaspor?
From 1 meetings on record, Erzurumspor FK have won 1, Konyaspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzurumspor FK and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Erzurumspor FK and Konyaspor?
Erzurumspor FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Erzurumspor FK see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzurumspor FK 33%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Erzurumspor FK and 67% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK have failed to score in 67% of games; Konyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzurumspor FK home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzurumspor FK play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Erzurumspor FK's recent matches and 67% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Erzurumspor FK's matches and 67% of Konyaspor's.
Do Erzurumspor FK and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Erzurumspor FK have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Erzurumspor FK defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Erzurumspor FK beat Konyaspor 1-0 at , Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzurumspor FK 1.27 xG and Konyaspor 1.90 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzurumspor FK attack 0.70 / defence 1.41 against Konyaspor attack 1.09 / defence 1.25, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzurumspor FK 26% | Draw 22% | Konyaspor 52%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Erzurumspor FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzurumspor FK 67%, Konyaspor 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzurumspor FK's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Konyaspor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Erzurumspor FK 0.33 PPG, Konyaspor 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Erzurumspor FK win broke the near-deadlock. Erzurumspor FK conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.