Beşiktaş 2-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beşiktaş face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Beşiktaş welcome Trabzonspor to Tüpraş Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 15 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Trabzonspor have posted 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Beşiktaş) versus 1.70 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Beşiktaş's games and 60% of Trabzonspor's (from Beşiktaş's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Beşiktaş, 1 for Trabzonspor and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2024, ended Beşiktaş 1–1 Trabzonspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 54% versus Trabzonspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 44% | Trabzonspor 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Beşiktaş surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Trabzonspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.47 xG and Trabzonspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.926 / defence 0.973 | Trabzonspor attack 0.872 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.220. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 59 games and Trabzonspor's last 59.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.18 | Draw 3.46 | Trabzonspor 3.96. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 60% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 24 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Beşiktaş 1.47 / Trabzonspor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.926 / def 0.973 | Trabzonspor attack 0.872 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Trabzonspor xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 24) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 46% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (0.93) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 59 games and Trabzonspor's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.46
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.51
1.03
Trabzonspor xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
6%
17.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.03 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 25W 16D 18L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 28W 12D 19L from 59 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.54 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 29 home games (16W 6D 7L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 9W 8D 12L from their last 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.75 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 25W 16D 18L in their last 59 games (1.54 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 28W 12D 19L in their last 59 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Trabzonspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.86 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 19 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 3-0 Beşiktaş.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2026: Trabzonspor 2-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 52%, Trabzonspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Beşiktaş) and 52% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Beşiktaş's games and 59% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 52% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 68% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Trabzonspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Trabzonspor 2-1 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.47 xG and Trabzonspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.93 / defence 0.97 against Trabzonspor attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 25%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 44%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.54 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.