Beşiktaş 1-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Beşiktaş welcome Kasımpaşa to Tüpraş Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 19). Kick-off is Friday 5 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Kasımpaşa have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Beşiktaş have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Beşiktaş have won 2, Kasımpaşa 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Jun 2023, ended Beşiktaş 5–2 Kasımpaşa — a Beşiktaş win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 60% versus Kasımpaşa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 60% | Kasımpaşa 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.65 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.984 / defence 1.032 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.951 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.260. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 53 games and Kasımpaşa's last 53.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 27%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.18 | Draw 3.74 | Kasımpaşa 3.65. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Beşiktaş's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 50% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 19 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 5 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Beşiktaş 1.65 / Kasımpaşa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.984 / def 1.032 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.951 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 5 January 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Beşiktaş 1 - 3 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 19) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 46% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (0.98) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 53 games and Kasımpaşa's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.74
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.89
1.24
Kasımpaşa xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
5%
18.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.24 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 32W 11D 10L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 18W 12D 23L from 53 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kasımpaşa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.27 PPG from their last 26 home games (18W 5D 3L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 7D 12L from their last 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.40 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 32W 11D 10L in their last 53 games (2.02 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.27 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Apr 2022, when Kasımpaşa won Beşiktaş 0-3 Kasımpaşa.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Kasımpaşa 2-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 54%, Kasımpaşa 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Beşiktaş) and 54% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 31%; Kasımpaşa in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 42% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Beşiktaş's matches and 54% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Beşiktaş and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 48% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Beşiktaş.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Beşiktaş 1-3 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.65 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 27%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 60%, Kasımpaşa 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Kasımpaşa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.