Beşiktaş 1-2 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beşiktaş and Gaziantep FK meet at Tüpraş Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Beşiktaş have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gaziantep FK (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Beşiktaş's favour (1.90 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Gaziantep FK in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Beşiktaş 3W, Gaziantep FK 1W, 3D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 55% versus Gaziantep FK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 45% | Gaziantep FK 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.99 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.979 / defence 0.925 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.058 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.183. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Beşiktaş games / 62 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 56% | Draw 22% | Gaziantep FK 21%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Gaziantep FK 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Gaziantep FK 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 10 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 56% | Draw 22% | Gaziantep FK 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Beşiktaş 1.99 / Gaziantep FK 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.979 / def 0.925 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.058 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Gaziantep FK xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 10 March 2025 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Gaziantep FK?
Beşiktaş 1 - 2 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Beşiktaş vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 56% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Beşiktaş and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Gaziantep FK?
Record (7 meetings): Beşiktaş 3W | Draws 3 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Gaziantep FK in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (1.06x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.49
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.15
1.16
Gaziantep FK xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
14%
7.30
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
3%
34.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.16 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Gaziantep FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 28W 16D 18L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 21W 13D 28L from 62 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.23 for Gaziantep FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 1.97 PPG from 30 outings (18W 5D 7L).
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 7W 4D 19L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.34 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 28W 16D 18L in their last 62 games (1.61 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 21W 13D 28L in their last 62 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.97 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 3-0 on 17 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beşiktaş
4
Draws
2
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 4, Gaziantep FK have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Gaziantep FK 0-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Gaziantep FK?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 50%, Gaziantep FK 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Beşiktaş and 73% for Gaziantep FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Beşiktaş's games and 63% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Beşiktaş's matches and 73% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Beşiktaş and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gaziantep FK defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Beşiktaş 1-2 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.99 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.16 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.06 / defence 1.23, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 56% | Draw 22% | Gaziantep FK 21%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Gaziantep FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 45%, Gaziantep FK 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.61 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.