Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 46%, yet in-form Fenerbahçe provide a compelling counter-argument — this Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Besiktas Park plays host to Beşiktaş versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 14 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 6W 2D 2L at Besiktas Park — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Besiktas Park than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Beşiktaş 3W, Fenerbahçe 4W, 3D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 57% versus Fenerbahçe 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 57% | Fenerbahçe 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.71 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.359 / defence 0.961 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.161 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Beşiktaş games / 37 Fenerbahçe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 31%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Fenerbahçe 3.23. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fenerbahçe (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 60% | Fenerbahçe 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Besiktas Park • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Beşiktaş 1.71 / Fenerbahçe 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.359 / def 0.961 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.161 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Fenerbahçe xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Besiktas Park.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Besiktas Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 46% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe?
Record (10 meetings): Beşiktaş 3W | Draws 3 | Fenerbahçe 4W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.36) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.16x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.24
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.07
1.36
Fenerbahçe xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
6%
18.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.36 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 19W 9D 9L from 37 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 3L across 37 games — 2.16 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Beşiktaş against 2.16 for Fenerbahçe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 11W 4D 4L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 11W 5D 3L across 19 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.27 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 19W 9D 9L in their last 37 games (1.78 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 23W 11D 3L in their last 37 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.95 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
4
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Fenerbahçe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 68%, Fenerbahçe 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Beşiktaş and 63% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Beşiktaş's games and 47% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Beşiktaş's matches and 63% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.