Beşiktaş 2-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Beşiktaş face Eyüpspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Eyüpspor travel to Tüpraş Stadyumu to take on Beşiktaş in Süper Lig (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Beşiktaş have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Eyüpspor — last 5 games: 2W 3D 0L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 0L across their last 3 road games (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 1.80 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Eyüpspor trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 60% and Eyüpspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Beşiktaş 40% | Eyüpspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.80 xG and Eyüpspor 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.255 / defence 0.957 | Eyüpspor attack 0.937 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.252. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack rating of 1.255 — their 1.80 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 42 games and Eyüpspor's last 5.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 52% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.92 | Draw 3.94 | Eyüpspor 4.45. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 50% (last 10 home games) | Eyüpspor 67% (last 3 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 6 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 52% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Beşiktaş 1.80 / Eyüpspor 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.255 / def 0.957 | Eyüpspor attack 0.937 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Eyüpspor xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 6) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 52% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 42 games and Eyüpspor's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.94
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.92
1.12
Eyüpspor xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
4%
27.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.12 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 1L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Eyüpspor's form line: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 2.00 PPG, Eyüpspor on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Beşiktaş's scoring rate against Eyüpspor's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Eyüpspor in 60%.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Eyüpspor in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Eyüpspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Beşiktaş or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Beşiktaş
1
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 4, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Beşiktaş 1-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 60%, Eyüpspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Beşiktaş) and 40% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Eyüpspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Beşiktaş's games and 60% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 40% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 60% of Eyüpspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Eyüpspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Eyüpspor 2-1 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.80 xG and Eyüpspor 1.12 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.25 / defence 0.96 against Eyüpspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 52% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 22%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 40%, Eyüpspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 2.00 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.