Başakşehir 0-3 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Başakşehir face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu plays host to Başakşehir versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig (matchday 28). Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Başakşehir (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Trabzonspor have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.60 for Trabzonspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Trabzonspor edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Başakşehir 0–1 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 46% versus Trabzonspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 44% | Trabzonspor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.66 xG and Trabzonspor 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.057 / defence 0.800 | Trabzonspor attack 0.804 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.178. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 63 games and Trabzonspor's last 63.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 59% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.70 | Draw 4.05 | Trabzonspor 6.05. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 40% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 28 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 59% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Başakşehir 1.66 / Trabzonspor 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.057 / def 0.800 | Trabzonspor attack 0.804 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Trabzonspor xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Başakşehir 0 - 3 Trabzonspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 28) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 59% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Başakşehir and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (0.80x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 63 games and Trabzonspor's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
59%
1.70
25%
4.05
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.42
0.76
Trabzonspor xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
3%
31.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.76 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Başakşehir come into this having played 63 games, going 28W 13D 22L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 1.57 PPG from 63 outings (29W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.57 for Trabzonspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Başakşehir's home form reads 17W 7D 7L across their last 31 home games, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 1.13 points per game from their last 31 away games (9W 8D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.71 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
Başakşehir (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 28W 13D 22L in their last 63 games (1.54 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 29W 12D 22L in their last 63 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Trabzonspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.87 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won Başakşehir 0-3 Trabzonspor on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
2
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Trabzonspor 2-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 48%, Trabzonspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Başakşehir) and 52% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Trabzonspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 58% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Başakşehir and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Başakşehir's recent games and 52% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 67% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Başakşehir.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Başakşehir 0-3 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.66 xG and Trabzonspor 0.76 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor outscored their 0.76 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.06 / defence 0.80 against Trabzonspor attack 0.80 / defence 0.95, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 59% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 17%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Trabzonspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 44%, Trabzonspor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.54 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.