Başakşehir 2-3 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kayserispor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir in Süper Lig (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Monday 19 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Başakşehir stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Başakşehir at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kayserispor — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kayserispor away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Başakşehir are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Başakşehir, 3 for Kayserispor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Oct 2023, ended Başakşehir 0–0 Kayserispor — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 38% versus Kayserispor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 39% | Kayserispor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.94 xG and Kayserispor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.102 / defence 0.862 | Kayserispor attack 0.916 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.192. Kayserispor's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Başakşehir's projected output up. Data: built from Başakşehir's last 61 games and Kayserispor's last 61.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 58% | Draw 27% | Kayserispor 15%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.72 | Draw 3.77 | Kayserispor 6.54. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (58%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Başakşehir's last 10 home games and Kayserispor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Başakşehir 50% (last 10 home games) | Kayserispor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 26 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 19 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 58% | Draw 27% | Kayserispor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Başakşehir 1.94 / Kayserispor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.102 / def 0.862 | Kayserispor attack 0.916 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Kayserispor xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Başakşehir vs Kayserispor FAQs
What time does Başakşehir vs Kayserispor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Kayserispor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 19 February 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Kayserispor?
Başakşehir 2 - 3 Kayserispor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Kayserispor part of?
Başakşehir vs Kayserispor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 26) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 58% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Başakşehir and Kayserispor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Başakşehir vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.10x the league average against Kayserispor's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Başakşehir's last 61 games and Kayserispor's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
58%
1.72
27%
3.77
15%
6.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.88
0.94
Kayserispor xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
6.54
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
2%
45.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Başakşehir vs Kayserispor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.94 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Kayserispor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir come into this having played 61 games, going 27W 14D 20L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.34 PPG from 61 outings (23W 13D 25L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.56 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Başakşehir's home form reads 18W 4D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.38 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
Başakşehir (Home) vs Kayserispor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Başakşehir
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Başakşehir vs Kayserispor Form FAQs
What form are Başakşehir and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 27W 14D 20L in their last 61 games (1.56 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 23W 13D 25L in their last 61 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Kayserispor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.93 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Jan 2026, when Başakşehir won Kayserispor 0-3 Başakşehir.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
3
Draws
5
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Başakşehir vs Kayserispor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kayserispor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Başakşehir have won 2, Kayserispor have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Kayserispor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Kayserispor 0-3 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 33%, Kayserispor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Başakşehir) and 60% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 27% of games; Kayserispor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Başakşehir vs Kayserispor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Başakşehir and Kayserispor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 60% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Başakşehir and Kayserispor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Başakşehir's recent games and 60% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Kayserispor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 77% of Kayserispor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Başakşehir 2-3 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.94 xG and Kayserispor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kayserispor outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.10 / defence 0.86 against Kayserispor attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 58% | Draw 27% | Kayserispor 15%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Kayserispor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 39%, Kayserispor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Kayserispor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.56 PPG, Kayserispor 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.