Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Beşiktaş at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 1.60 (Beşiktaş). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Başakşehir have won 3, Beşiktaş 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 2–3 with Beşiktaş winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 55% versus Beşiktaş 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 62% | Beşiktaş 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.78 xG and Beşiktaş 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.237 / defence 0.909 | Beşiktaş attack 1.114 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Data: 42 Başakşehir games / 41 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 23% | Beşiktaş 26%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Beşiktaş 3.85. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Başakşehir 40% | Beşiktaş 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 51% | Draw 23% | Beşiktaş 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Başakşehir 1.78 / Beşiktaş 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.237 / def 0.909 | Beşiktaş attack 1.114 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Beşiktaş xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Where is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş part of?
Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 51% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Başakşehir and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
Record (10 meetings): Başakşehir 3W | Draws 3 | Beşiktaş 4W.
What form are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.24) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
51%
1.96
23%
4.30
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.99
1.20
Beşiktaş xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
4%
23.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.20 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 19W 11D 12L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 22W 9D 11L from 42 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.62 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.86 PPG from 21 outings (11W 6D 4L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 9W 5D 7L from 21 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.79 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 19W 11D 12L in their last 42 games (1.62 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 22W 9D 11L in their last 42 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Beşiktaş away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.86 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Başakşehir
3
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Başakşehir 2-3 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 57%, Beşiktaş 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Başakşehir) and 48% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 48% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Başakşehir's recent games and 48% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.