Antalyaspor 1-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antalyaspor and Konyaspor meet at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 5W 2D 3L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Konyaspor have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Konyaspor are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Konyaspor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2022, ended 3–2 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 53% versus Konyaspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 51% | Konyaspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.21 xG and Konyaspor 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.013 / defence 1.175 | Konyaspor attack 1.067 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.255. Data: 45 Antalyaspor games / 46 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 29% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 46%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Konyaspor 2.17. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 29% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Antalyaspor 1.21 / Konyaspor 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.013 / def 1.175 | Konyaspor attack 1.067 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Konyaspor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Antalyaspor 1 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 29% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Antalyaspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Konyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Konyaspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (1.01) and Konyaspor's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.07x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
29%
3.41
25%
4.02
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.78
1.57
Konyaspor xG
3.41
29%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
6%
16.45
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.57 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor come into this having played 45 games, going 18W 11D 16L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.82 PPG from 45 outings (24W 10D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.82 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Antalyaspor's home form reads 11W 5D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.32 points per game from 22 outings (8W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.64 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 18W 11D 16L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 24W 10D 11L in their last 45 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.73 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
6
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 59%, Konyaspor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antalyaspor) and 64% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Antalyaspor's games and 68% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Antalyaspor's matches and 64% of Konyaspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 9, as Antalyaspor and Konyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.21 xG and Konyaspor 1.57 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.18 against Konyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.87, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 29% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 46%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 51%, Konyaspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.44 PPG, Konyaspor 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.