Antalyaspor 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Antalya Stadyumu plays host to Antalyaspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 13 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Antalya Stadyumu this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Antalya Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fatih Karagümrük in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Antalyaspor 0W, Fatih Karagümrük 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 50% versus Fatih Karagümrük 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 46% | Fatih Karagümrük 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.61 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.936 / defence 1.040 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.830 / defence 1.519. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.097. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.519 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Antalyaspor games / 24 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 52% | Draw 26% | Fatih Karagümrük 21%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.76. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Antalyaspor 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 52% | Draw 26% | Fatih Karagümrük 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Antalyaspor 1.61 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.936 / def 1.040 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.830 / def 1.519 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Fatih Karagümrük xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Antalyaspor 3 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 52% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (1 meetings): Antalyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.83x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.78
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.56
0.95
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
4%
23.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.95 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 6W 7D 11L from 24 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 9L across 24 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.38 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 5W 4D 3L from 12 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 4W 2D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 6W 7D 11L in their last 24 games (1.04 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 9W 6D 9L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.58 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fatih Karagümrük go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 3-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Antalyaspor
1
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 4, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 67%, Fatih Karagümrük 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Antalyaspor) and 58% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Antalyaspor's games and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 58% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antalyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.61 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.95 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fatih Karagümrük landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.83 / defence 1.52, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 52% | Draw 26% | Fatih Karagümrük 21%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 46%, Fatih Karagümrük 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.04 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.