Ankaragücü 0-0 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ankaragücü at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ankaragücü vs Pendikspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ankaragücü host Pendikspor at Eryaman Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ankaragücü stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Ankaragücü's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Eryaman Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ankaragücü are significantly better at Eryaman Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Pendikspor have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pendikspor's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ankaragücü at 1.00 PPG versus Pendikspor's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ankaragücü, 0 for Pendikspor and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ankaragücü trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Pendikspor trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ankaragücü 67% and Pendikspor 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 44% | Pendikspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.78 xG and Pendikspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.888 / defence 0.869 | Pendikspor attack 0.876 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.253. Pendikspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Ankaragücü's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Ankaragücü games / 36 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 55% | Draw 27% | Pendikspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Pendikspor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Ankaragücü (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ankaragücü are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ankaragücü 50% | Pendikspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 55% | Draw 27% | Pendikspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Ankaragücü 1.78 / Pendikspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.888 / def 0.869 | Pendikspor attack 0.876 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Pendikspor xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Pendikspor kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Pendikspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Pendikspor?
Ankaragücü 0 - 0 Pendikspor.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Pendikspor part of?
Ankaragücü vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 55% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ankaragücü and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Pendikspor?
Record (1 meetings): Ankaragücü 0W | Draws 1 | Pendikspor 0W.
What form are Ankaragücü and Pendikspor in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Pendikspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ankaragücü's attack at 0.89x the league average against Pendikspor's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pendikspor's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.77
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.73
0.95
Pendikspor xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
3%
32.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 0.95 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Pendikspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ankaragücü's recent record stands at 8W 15D 13L from 36 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Pendikspor, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 18L across 36 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ankaragücü on 1.08 PPG, Pendikspor on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ankaragücü have managed 6W 8D 4L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pendikspor's away record stands at 3W 6D 9L across 18 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ankaragücü come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.17 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Pendikspor in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Current Season
Pendikspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 8W 15D 13L in their last 36 games (1.08 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 9W 9D 18L in their last 36 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Pendikspor away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.44 PPG; Pendikspor away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ankaragücü
2
Draws
0
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 0, Pendikspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Ankaragücü 0-0 Pendikspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 50%, Pendikspor 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ankaragücü) and 61% (Pendikspor).
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ankaragücü's games and 78% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ankaragücü vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ankaragücü's recent games and 61% of Pendikspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ankaragücü and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ankaragücü's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, as Ankaragücü and Pendikspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.78 xG and Pendikspor 0.95 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ankaragücü fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Pendikspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.89 / defence 0.87 against Pendikspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.27, drawn from 72/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 55% | Draw 27% | Pendikspor 18%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 44%, Pendikspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Pendikspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ankaragücü 1.08 PPG, Pendikspor 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pendikspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.