Alanyaspor 0-3 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 54% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Alanyaspor welcome Gaziantep FK to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Alanyaspor stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Gaziantep FK — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Gaziantep FK away from home: 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gaziantep FK are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Alanyaspor: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Gaziantep FK, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2023, ended Alanyaspor 3–0 Gaziantep FK — a Alanyaspor win.
The head-to-head data gives Alanyaspor an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 46 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Gaziantep FK trading profile (last 46 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 50% versus Gaziantep FK 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 63% | Gaziantep FK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.66 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.982 / defence 1.042 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.673 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.264. Gaziantep FK's attack rating of 0.673 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 47 games and Gaziantep FK's last 46.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 54% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 18%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.86 | Draw 3.51 | Gaziantep FK 5.60. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 54% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Alanyaspor 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Gaziantep FK (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Gaziantep FK 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 12 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 54% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Alanyaspor 1.66 / Gaziantep FK 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.982 / def 1.042 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.673 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Gaziantep FK xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Alanyaspor 0 - 3 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 12) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 54% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 47 games and Gaziantep FK's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
54%
1.86
28%
3.51
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.55
0.89
Gaziantep FK xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
3%
29.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.89 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 12D 22L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 0.80 PPG from 46 outings (10W 7D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.04 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 10W 6D 8L across their last 24 home games, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Alanyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 0.62 points per game from their last 24 away games (4W 3D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 0.87 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Gaziantep FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 12W 12D 22L in their last 46 games (1.04 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 10W 7D 29L in their last 46 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 May 2022, when Alanyaspor won Alanyaspor 3-0 Gaziantep FK.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 6, Gaziantep FK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Gaziantep FK 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Alanyaspor) and 54% (Gaziantep FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 8% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gaziantep FK in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 38% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Alanyaspor's matches and 54% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 72% of Gaziantep FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gaziantep FK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Alanyaspor 0-3 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.66 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.89 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.67 / defence 1.13, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 54% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 18%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Gaziantep FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 63%, Gaziantep FK 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (46 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.04 PPG, Gaziantep FK 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.