Alanyaspor 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Fatih Karagümrük at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 4W 1D 3L this season (8 games, 1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 4W 1D 4L from 9 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 1.30 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 50% versus Fatih Karagümrük 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.62 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.075 / defence 1.365 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.913 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.139. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Alanyaspor games / 18 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 42% | Draw 26% | Fatih Karagümrük 33%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 44%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 42% | Draw 26% | Fatih Karagümrük 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Alanyaspor 1.62 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.075 / def 1.365 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.913 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Fatih Karagümrük xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 42% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.07) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.92
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.04
1.42
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
6%
15.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.42 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 18 games, going 8W 3D 7L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.50 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (4W 0D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.39 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 8W 3D 7L in their last 18 games (1.50 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.62 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 4, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Alanyaspor) and 62% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Alanyaspor's matches and 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, as Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.62 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.42 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 1.36 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 42% | Draw 26% | Fatih Karagümrük 33%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.50 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.