Adana Demirspor 0-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Adana Demirspor face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Trabzonspor travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Adana Demirspor stand at 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Trabzonspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 1.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Adana Demirspor's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Trabzonspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Adana Demirspor.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2024, ended Adana Demirspor 0–5 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Trabzonspor have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 58% versus Trabzonspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 60% | Trabzonspor 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Adana Demirspor surrender their half-time lead 41% of the time, while Trabzonspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.12 xG and Trabzonspor 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.681 / defence 1.420 | Trabzonspor attack 1.009 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.173. Adana Demirspor's attack rating of 0.681 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 1.420 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Trabzonspor's projected output up. Data: built from Adana Demirspor's last 67 games and Trabzonspor's last 67.
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 25% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 50%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 4.00 | Draw 4.02 | Trabzonspor 1.99. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Adana Demirspor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Adana Demirspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 32 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 19 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 25% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Adana Demirspor 1.12 / Trabzonspor 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.681 / def 1.420 | Trabzonspor attack 1.009 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Trabzonspor xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 32) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 25% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 0.68x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Adana Demirspor's last 67 games and Trabzonspor's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
25%
4.00
25%
4.02
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.80
1.68
Trabzonspor xG
4.00
25%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
21.48
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.68 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 12W 18D 37L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 31W 13D 23L from 67 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Adana Demirspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.09 PPG from their last 33 home games (10W 6D 17L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 10W 8D 15L from their last 33 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.72 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Adana Demirspor (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 18D 37L in their last 67 games (0.81 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 31W 13D 23L in their last 67 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.09 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Nov 2024, when Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 5-0 Adana Demirspor.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
0
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2025: Adana Demirspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 52%, Trabzonspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Adana Demirspor) and 54% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Trabzonspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 58% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 54% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 69% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Adana Demirspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Adana Demirspor 0-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.12 xG and Trabzonspor 1.68 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.68 / defence 1.42 against Trabzonspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 25% | Draw 25% | Trabzonspor 50%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.