Adana Demirspor 1-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Konyaspor make the trip to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to face Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Adana Demirspor's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Konyaspor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Konyaspor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Adana Demirspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Konyaspor winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Adana Demirspor half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 54% versus Konyaspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 54% | Konyaspor 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.35 xG and Konyaspor 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.145 / defence 0.793 | Konyaspor attack 1.016 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.267. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Adana Demirspor games / 48 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 44% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Adana Demirspor 60% | Konyaspor 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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