Yeni Malatyaspor 1-5 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yeni Malatyaspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Yeni Malatyaspor host Trabzonspor at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 16 August 2021 at 17:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.07 xG and Trabzonspor 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Trabzonspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 0.870. Data: 0 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 0 Trabzonspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 39% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Trabzonspor 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yeni Malatyaspor at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yeni Malatyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 16 Aug 2021, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 39% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.07 / Trabzonspor 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Trabzonspor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.091 / away 0.870 • Poisson stance: Yeni Malatyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Trabzonspor xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:15 on Monday 16 August 2021 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Yeni Malatyaspor 1 - 5 Trabzonspor.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Yeni Malatyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Trabzonspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Yeni Malatyaspor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Yeni Malatyaspor's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yeni Malatyaspor Win
39%
2.58
34%
2.96
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
1.92
0.85
Trabzonspor xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
9%
10.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 0.85 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Pre-Season
Trabzonspor
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
0
Draws
2
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 January 2022, when Trabzonspor 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Yeni Malatyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Yeni Malatyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-5 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.07 xG and Trabzonspor 0.85 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Trabzonspor outscored their 0.85 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Trabzonspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 39% | Draw 34% | Trabzonspor 27%, with Yeni Malatyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.