Yeni Malatyaspor 1-3 Rizespor – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Rizespor at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Rizespor encounter.

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Full Analysis

Yeni Malatya Stadyumu plays host to Yeni Malatyaspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Yeni Malatyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, Yeni Malatyaspor have posted 1W 3D 6L at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Rizespor (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Rizespor's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Rizespor arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Yeni Malatyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rizespor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Yeni Malatyaspor 0W, Rizespor 1W, 0D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Rizespor winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Yeni Malatyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.

Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yeni Malatyaspor 37% versus Rizespor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 37% | Rizespor 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.22 xG and Rizespor 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.749 / defence 1.418 | Rizespor attack 0.969 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.345. Yeni Malatyaspor's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.362 — this is suppressing Yeni Malatyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 35 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 24% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 50%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Rizespor 2.00. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yeni Malatyaspor 60% | Rizespor 60% BTTS from recent games.

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