Trabzonspor 0-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sivasspor make the trip to Papara Park to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Friday 12 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Papara Park, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sivasspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Trabzonspor, 1.50 for Sivasspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sivasspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Trabzonspor 2W, Sivasspor 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 58% versus Sivasspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 59% | Sivasspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.01 xG and Sivasspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.239 / defence 1.144 | Sivasspor attack 0.865 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.199. Data: 66 Trabzonspor games / 67 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 55% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Sivasspor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 70% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 55% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Trabzonspor 2.01 / Sivasspor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.239 / def 1.144 | Sivasspor attack 0.865 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sivasspor xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Trabzonspor 0 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 55% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Trabzonspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Sivasspor?
Record (5 meetings): Trabzonspor 2W | Draws 2 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Sivasspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.86x) against Trabzonspor's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 66/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
55%
1.83
25%
4.02
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.20
1.19
Sivasspor xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
3%
36.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.19 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Trabzonspor come into this having played 66 games, going 32W 10D 24L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.23 PPG from 66 outings (21W 18D 27L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Trabzonspor against 1.23 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Trabzonspor's home form reads 21W 5D 7L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.15 points per game from 33 outings (11W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.24 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Sivasspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 32W 10D 24L in their last 66 games (1.61 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 21W 18D 27L in their last 66 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.06 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 4-0 on 20 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Sivasspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2025, when Trabzonspor 4-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Sivasspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 48%, Sivasspor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Trabzonspor) and 64% (Sivasspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Sivasspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 58% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Trabzonspor's matches and 64% of Sivasspor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Trabzonspor 0-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.01 xG and Sivasspor 1.19 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.24 / defence 1.14 against Sivasspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 55% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 20%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Sivasspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 59%, Sivasspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.61 PPG, Sivasspor 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.