Trabzonspor 3-4 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 68% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 27 as Trabzonspor welcome Kayserispor to Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.
Kayserispor — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trabzonspor at 1.50 PPG versus Kayserispor's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Trabzonspor: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Kayserispor, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Trabzonspor and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 61% and Kayserispor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Kayserispor 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.35 xG and Kayserispor 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.202 / defence 0.739 | Kayserispor attack 1.042 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.258. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Trabzonspor games / 63 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 68% | Draw 18% | Kayserispor 14%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Kayserispor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 30% | Kayserispor 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 68% | Draw 18% | Kayserispor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG Trabzonspor 2.35 / Kayserispor 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.202 / def 0.739 | Kayserispor attack 1.042 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Kayserispor xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Trabzonspor 3 - 4 Kayserispor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 68% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Trabzonspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kayserispor?
Record (3 meetings): Trabzonspor 3W | Draws 0 | Kayserispor 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Kayserispor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Kayserispor (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Trabzonspor's attack rating (1.20) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.58
14%
7.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.32
0.97
Kayserispor xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.58
18%
Draw
7.17
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
10%
10.48
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
1%
75.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.97 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 35W 17D 10L from 62 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 24W 13D 25L across 62 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kayserispor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 20W 9D 1L from 30 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 7W 8D 15L across 30 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.50 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 35W 17D 10L in their last 62 games (1.97 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 24W 13D 25L in their last 62 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.30 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Trabzonspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2025, when Trabzonspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 6, Kayserispor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Kayserispor 1-3 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Kayserispor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 50%, Kayserispor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Trabzonspor) and 60% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Trabzonspor's games and 67% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 60% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kayserispor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Trabzonspor 3-4 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.35 xG and Kayserispor 0.97 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Kayserispor outscored their 0.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.20 / defence 0.74 against Kayserispor attack 1.04 / defence 1.17, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 68% | Draw 18% | Kayserispor 14%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Kayserispor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 56%, Kayserispor 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Kayserispor's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Kayserispor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.