Trabzonspor 0-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 38%, yet in-form Beşiktaş provide a compelling counter-argument — this Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Beşiktaş travel to Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beşiktaş are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 1, Beşiktaş 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 61% and Beşiktaş 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Beşiktaş 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.55 xG and Beşiktaş 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.184 / defence 0.976 | Beşiktaş attack 1.241 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.273. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Trabzonspor games / 65 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 38% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 38%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Beşiktaş 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 40% | Beşiktaş 60%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 38% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Trabzonspor 1.55 / Beşiktaş 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.184 / def 0.976 | Beşiktaş attack 1.241 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Beşiktaş xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Trabzonspor 0 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 38% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (3 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 2 | Beşiktaş 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
38%
2.61
24%
4.19
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.10
1.54
Beşiktaş xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.54 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 64 games, going 35W 17D 12L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.73 PPG from 64 outings (30W 21D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.91 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 20W 10D 2L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.41 points per game from 32 outings (11W 12D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.64 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Beşiktaş in 62%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 35W 17D 12L in their last 64 games (1.91 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 30W 21D 13L in their last 64 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.19 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
5
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 53%, Beşiktaş 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 47% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Trabzonspor's games and 66% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 47% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Trabzonspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş finished level at 0-0 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.55 xG and Beşiktaş 1.54 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Trabzonspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Beşiktaş landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.18 / defence 0.98 against Beşiktaş attack 1.24 / defence 0.77, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 38% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 38%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 56%, Beşiktaş 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.91 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.