Samsunspor 3-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 35%, yet in-form Trabzonspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Samsunspor host Trabzonspor at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Samsunspor have posted 6W 3D 1L at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Samsunspor's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Samsunspor, 1 for Trabzonspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Samsunspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Trabzonspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 53% versus Trabzonspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 38% | Trabzonspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.21 xG and Trabzonspor 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.855 / defence 0.827 | Trabzonspor attack 1.158 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.233. Data: 34 Samsunspor games / 69 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 35% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Trabzonspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Samsunspor 30% | Trabzonspor 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 35% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Samsunspor 1.21 / Trabzonspor 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.855 / def 0.827 | Trabzonspor attack 1.158 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Trabzonspor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Samsunspor 3 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 35% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Samsunspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (1 meetings): Samsunspor 0W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Trabzonspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Samsunspor's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Trabzonspor's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
35%
2.85
31%
3.20
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.39
1.18
Trabzonspor xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.18 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 10W 9D 15L from 34 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 18W 4D 12L across 34 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Samsunspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Samsunspor have managed 9W 4D 4L from 17 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 8W 3D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Samsunspor are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.74 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 18W 4D 12L in their last 34 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.82 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Feb 2026, when Trabzonspor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
2
Draws
2
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Trabzonspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 47%, Trabzonspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Samsunspor) and 53% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 59% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Samsunspor's recent games and 53% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Trabzonspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Trabzonspor 3-1 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.21 xG and Trabzonspor 1.18 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.83 against Trabzonspor attack 1.16 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 35% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 34%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 38%, Trabzonspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Samsunspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.