Rizespor 3-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Konyaspor have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Rizespor, 2 for Konyaspor and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 57% versus Konyaspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Konyaspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.63 xG and Konyaspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.074 / defence 0.999 | Konyaspor attack 1.061 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.122. Data: 67 Rizespor games / 67 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 45% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Konyaspor 4.00. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 40% | Konyaspor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 45% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Rizespor 1.63 / Konyaspor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.074 / def 0.999 | Konyaspor attack 1.061 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Konyaspor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Rizespor 3 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Konyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 45% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rizespor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Rizespor 2W | Draws 3 | Konyaspor 2W.
What form are Rizespor and Konyaspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 1.07x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.06x) against Rizespor's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.30
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.82
1.19
Konyaspor xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
5%
20.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.19 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 67 games, going 24W 14D 29L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.28 PPG from 67 outings (23W 17D 27L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Rizespor against 1.28 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 16W 6D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.91 points per game from 33 outings (8W 6D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 63%.
Last 67 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 24W 14D 29L in their last 67 games (1.28 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 23W 17D 27L in their last 67 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Konyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.64 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Rizespor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Rizespor
3
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
From 9 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 4, Konyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Konyaspor 0-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 52%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rizespor) and 54% (Konyaspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Rizespor's games and 67% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Rizespor's recent games and 54% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Konyaspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Konyaspor 3-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.63 xG and Konyaspor 1.19 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Konyaspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 45% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 25%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 57%, Konyaspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.28 PPG, Konyaspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.