Pendikspor 1-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ankaragücü at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Ankaragücü travel to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to take on Pendikspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 December 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Pendikspor have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pendikspor's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 4L across 7 games at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu this term (0.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ankaragücü stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Ankaragücü have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pendikspor 0.90 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Pendikspor trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ankaragücü trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 69% and Ankaragücü 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 56% | Ankaragücü 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.07 xG and Ankaragücü 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.693 / defence 1.460 | Ankaragücü attack 1.117 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.264. Pendikspor's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Pendikspor games / 52 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 18% | Draw 23% | Ankaragücü 59%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 5.56 | Draw 4.35 | Ankaragücü 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Ankaragücü (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ankaragücü at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pendikspor 57% | Ankaragücü 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 25 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 18% | Draw 23% | Ankaragücü 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Pendikspor 1.07 / Ankaragücü 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.693 / def 1.460 | Ankaragücü attack 1.117 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Ankaragücü xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 25 December 2023 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü?
Pendikspor 1 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü part of?
Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 18% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pendikspor and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Ankaragücü?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pendikspor and Ankaragücü in?
Pendikspor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Ankaragücü (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pendikspor's attack at 0.69x the league average against Ankaragücü's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Pendikspor's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
18%
5.53
23%
4.42
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
3.13
2.06
Ankaragücü xG
5.53
18%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
13%
7.86
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
2%
43.46
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Pendikspor and 2.06 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pendikspor's recent record stands at 3W 4D 9L from 16 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ankaragücü, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 5L across 16 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pendikspor on 0.81 PPG, Ankaragücü on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pendikspor have managed 1W 2D 4L from 7 games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ankaragücü's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ankaragücü come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pendikspor are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Ankaragücü in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pendikspor and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 3W 4D 9L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Ankaragücü away?
Ankaragücü's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 0.71 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pendikspor and Ankaragücü runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pendikspor
2
Draws
0
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Ankaragücü?
From 2 meetings on record, Pendikspor have won 0, Ankaragücü have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Ankaragücü 0-0 Pendikspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pendikspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pendikspor at 57%, Ankaragücü at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pendikspor) and 71% (Ankaragücü). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pendikspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pendikspor play Ankaragücü?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Pendikspor's games and 86% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pendikspor vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Pendikspor's matches and 71% of Ankaragücü's.
Do Pendikspor and Ankaragücü tend to score early?
Pendikspor have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Ankaragücü in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pendikspor and Ankaragücü share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, as Pendikspor and Ankaragücü drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.07 xG and Ankaragücü 2.06 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ankaragücü landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.69 / defence 1.46 against Ankaragücü attack 1.12 / defence 0.99, drawn from 16/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 18% | Draw 23% | Ankaragücü 59%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 56%, Ankaragücü 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pendikspor 0.81 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pendikspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.