Konyaspor 1-3 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Galatasaray at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Galatasaray encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Galatasaray in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 4W 3D 3L at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
Galatasaray (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Galatasaray have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Galatasaray are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Konyaspor, 3 for Galatasaray and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2024, ended 0–3 with Galatasaray winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Galatasaray half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 51% versus Galatasaray 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 44% | Galatasaray 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 0.91 xG and Galatasaray 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.893 / defence 0.929 | Galatasaray attack 1.619 / defence 0.661. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.248. Galatasaray's defence strength of 0.661 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Galatasaray have an above-average attack strength of 1.619 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 73 Konyaspor games / 73 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 16% | Draw 25% | Galatasaray 58%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | Galatasaray 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Galatasaray (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Galatasaray at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Konyaspor 40% | Galatasaray 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 16% | Draw 25% | Galatasaray 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Konyaspor 0.91 / Galatasaray 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.893 / def 0.929 | Galatasaray attack 1.619 / def 0.661 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Galatasaray xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Galatasaray kick off?
Konyaspor vs Galatasaray kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Konyaspor 1 - 3 Galatasaray.
Where is Konyaspor vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Galatasaray part of?
Konyaspor vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 16% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Konyaspor and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Galatasaray?
Record (5 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 0 | Galatasaray 3W.
What form are Konyaspor and Galatasaray in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Galatasaray (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.89) and Galatasaray's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Galatasaray's attack (1.62x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
16%
6.16
25%
3.94
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.79
1.88
Galatasaray xG
6.16
16%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
15%
6.54
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
2%
40.27
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.88 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 21W 29D 23L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Galatasaray's form line: 60W 7D 6L from 73 games, 2.56 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Galatasaray are the form team by 1.30 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.28 PPG from 36 outings (11W 13D 12L).
On the road, Galatasaray have gone 27W 5D 4L from 36 away games — 2.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 2.36 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Galatasaray in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Galatasaray
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 21W 29D 23L in their last 73 games (1.26 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 60W 7D 6L in their last 73 (2.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Galatasaray away?
Galatasaray's away record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.28 PPG; Galatasaray away: 2.39 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won 3-0 on 7 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Galatasaray — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
0
Draws
7
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Galatasaray?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 3, Galatasaray have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Konyaspor 2-0 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 50%, Galatasaray 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Konyaspor) and 58% (Galatasaray).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Galatasaray in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Galatasaray?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 36% of Galatasaray's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Konyaspor's recent games and 58% of Galatasaray's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Galatasaray cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Konyaspor 1-3 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 0.91 xG and Galatasaray 1.88 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Galatasaray outscored their 1.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Galatasaray attack 1.62 / defence 0.66, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 16% | Draw 25% | Galatasaray 58%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 44%, Galatasaray 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Galatasaray's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.