Konyaspor 0-0 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig (matchday 35). Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Konyaspor (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fenerbahçe have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Fenerbahçe away from home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Fenerbahçe edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Jan 2024, ended Konyaspor 1–7 Fenerbahçe — a Fenerbahçe win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 51% versus Fenerbahçe 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 43% | Fenerbahçe 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Konyaspor surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Fenerbahçe have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 75% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 0.98 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.829 / defence 1.129 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.521 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.241. Fenerbahçe bring a tight defence (rating 0.754, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Konyaspor's projected output down. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack rating of 1.521, which lifts their away xG to 2.13. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 70 games and Fenerbahçe's last 70.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 15% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 62%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 6.63 | Draw 4.46 | Fenerbahçe 1.60. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Fenerbahçe 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 35 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 15% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Konyaspor 0.98 / Fenerbahçe 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.829 / def 1.129 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.521 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Fenerbahçe xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 6 May 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Konyaspor 0 - 0 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 35) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 15% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.83) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.52x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 2.13.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 70 games and Fenerbahçe's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
15%
6.63
22%
4.46
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
3.11
2.13
Fenerbahçe xG
6.63
15%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
12%
8.41
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
2%
55.76
23%
4.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Konyaspor and 2.13 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 20W 27D 23L from 70 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 53W 10D 7L across 70 games — 2.41 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Konyaspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 10W 12D 12L from their last 34 home games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 26W 5D 3L across their last 34 away games, a 2.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.51 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
Konyaspor (Home) vs Fenerbahçe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 20W 27D 23L in their last 70 games (1.24 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 53W 10D 7L in their last 70 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.24 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.44 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Fenerbahçe have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won Fenerbahçe 7-1 Konyaspor on 10 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
1
Draws
8
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Fenerbahçe 4-2 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 86% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 53%, Fenerbahçe 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Konyaspor) and 59% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 53% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Konyaspor's recent games and 59% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 70% of Fenerbahçe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Konyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor and Fenerbahçe finished level at 0-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 0.98 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.13 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Konyaspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.13 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.52 / defence 0.75, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 15% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 62%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 43%, Fenerbahçe 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.