Konyaspor 3-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 36%, yet in-form Başakşehir provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Başakşehir at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 2W 4D 4L at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Başakşehir — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Konyaspor, 3 for Başakşehir and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2024, ended 2–3 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 51% versus Başakşehir 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 43% | Başakşehir 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.03 xG and Başakşehir 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.847 / defence 0.813 | Başakşehir attack 0.862 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.332. Data: 48 Konyaspor games / 47 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 36% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 31%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Başakşehir 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Başakşehir (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Başakşehir 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 36% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Konyaspor 1.03 / Başakşehir 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.847 / def 0.813 | Başakşehir attack 0.862 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Başakşehir xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Konyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Konyaspor 3 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Konyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 36% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Konyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
Record (6 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 3W.
What form are Konyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
36%
2.79
34%
2.98
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
1.97
0.93
Başakşehir xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
11%
9.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.93 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 12W 15D 20L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir's form line: 22W 10D 15L from 47 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 9W 5D 8L from 22 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.53 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 12W 15D 20L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.23 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Başakşehir runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Konyaspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
1
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Başakşehir have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Başakşehir 2-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 46%, Başakşehir 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Konyaspor) and 41% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 27% of games; Başakşehir in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 46% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Konyaspor's recent games and 41% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Başakşehir 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Başakşehir 3-2 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.03 xG and Başakşehir 0.93 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Başakşehir outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.81 against Başakşehir attack 0.86 / defence 0.85, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 36% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 31%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 43%, Başakşehir 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Başakşehir's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Konyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.