Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Konyaspor host Alanyaspor at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Konyaspor — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Alanyaspor's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Konyaspor at 0.90 PPG versus Alanyaspor's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Alanyaspor, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Konyaspor.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Alanyaspor winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Alanyaspor have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Konyaspor in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 62% and Alanyaspor 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 54% | Alanyaspor 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.22 xG and Alanyaspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.822 / defence 1.052 | Alanyaspor attack 0.904 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.220. Data: 38 Konyaspor games / 37 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 38% | Draw 28% | Alanyaspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Alanyaspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Konyaspor 40% | Alanyaspor 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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