Konyaspor 1-2 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 41%, yet in-form Adana Demirspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu to face Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Wednesday 19 April 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Adana Demirspor's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Adana Demirspor arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Adana Demirspor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Konyaspor, 0 for Adana Demirspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 54% versus Adana Demirspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 53% | Adana Demirspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.25 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.722 / defence 0.875 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.930 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.287. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Konyaspor games / 66 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 41% | Draw 29% | Adana Demirspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Adana Demirspor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Adana Demirspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Konyaspor 60% | Adana Demirspor 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 41% | Draw 29% | Adana Demirspor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Konyaspor 1.25 / Adana Demirspor 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.722 / def 0.875 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.930 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Adana Demirspor xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 19 April 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 2 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (3 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Adana Demirspor 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.93x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.50
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.30
1.05
Adana Demirspor xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.05 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 29W 20D 17L from 66 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 29W 19D 18L across 66 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.61 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 17W 10D 6L from 33 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 10W 10D 13L across 33 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.74 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 29W 20D 17L in their last 66 games (1.62 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 29W 19D 18L in their last 66 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.85 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Konyaspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
3
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Konyaspor 3-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 46%, Adana Demirspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Konyaspor) and 58% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Adana Demirspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 64% of Adana Demirspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Konyaspor's recent games and 58% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Adana Demirspor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Konyaspor 1-2 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.25 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.05 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.72 / defence 0.88 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 41% | Draw 29% | Adana Demirspor 31%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Adana Demirspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 53%, Adana Demirspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.62 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.