Kayserispor 2-1 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kayserispor at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Giresunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 26 as Kayserispor welcome Giresunspor to Kadir Has Şehir Stadı. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Kayserispor have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Kayserispor are significantly better at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Giresunspor — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Giresunspor have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Kayserispor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Kayserispor have won 0, Giresunspor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Giresunspor in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 56% versus Giresunspor 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kayserispor 48% | Giresunspor 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.23 xG and Giresunspor 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.118 / defence 0.967 | Giresunspor attack 0.777 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.130. Data: 25 Kayserispor games / 25 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 44% | Draw 31% | Giresunspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Giresunspor 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kayserispor at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 40% | Giresunspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 44% | Draw 31% | Giresunspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Kayserispor 1.23 / Giresunspor 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.118 / def 0.967 | Giresunspor attack 0.777 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Giresunspor xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Giresunspor?
Kayserispor 2 - 1 Giresunspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Giresunspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 44% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Kayserispor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Giresunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 1 | Giresunspor 0W.
What form are Kayserispor and Giresunspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Giresunspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kayserispor's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Giresunspor's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Giresunspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
44%
2.27
31%
3.20
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.08
0.85
Giresunspor xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
7%
13.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.7 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.85 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 9W 8D 8L from 25 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Giresunspor, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 13L across 25 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.40 PPG, Giresunspor on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 8W 3D 1L from 12 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Giresunspor's away record stands at 3W 3D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kayserispor are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 0.92 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Giresunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 9W 8D 8L in their last 25 games (1.40 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 7W 5D 13L in their last 25 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Giresunspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 2.25 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Giresunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Giresunspor in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kayserispor and Giresunspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kayserispor have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2022, when Kayserispor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Giresunspor specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Kayserispor
1
Draws
0
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 3, Giresunspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Giresunspor 1-2 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Giresunspor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Giresunspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 42%, Giresunspor 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Kayserispor and 25% for Giresunspor.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Giresunspor in 33%; Giresunspor in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Giresunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 33% of Giresunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Kayserispor's recent games and 25% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Giresunspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Giresunspor 2-1 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.23 xG and Giresunspor 0.85 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.12 / defence 0.97 against Giresunspor attack 0.78 / defence 0.95, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 44% | Draw 31% | Giresunspor 25%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 48%, Giresunspor 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Giresunspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.40 PPG, Giresunspor 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Giresunspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.