Kasımpaşa 2-4 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 37 as Kasımpaşa welcome Antalyaspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 6W 1D 3L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Antalyaspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Kasımpaşa) versus 2.40 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kasımpaşa, 0 for Antalyaspor and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Antalyaspor trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 64% versus Antalyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 61% | Antalyaspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.72 xG and Antalyaspor 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.275 / defence 1.198 | Antalyaspor attack 0.815 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.344. Kasımpaşa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Kasımpaşa games / 36 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Antalyaspor 3.70. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Antalyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.72 / Antalyaspor 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.275 / def 1.198 | Antalyaspor attack 0.815 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Antalyaspor xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 4 Antalyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 45% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 0W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (1.27) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.63
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.03
1.31
Antalyaspor xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
5%
20.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.31 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 14W 8D 14L from 36 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 11L across 36 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.39 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 8W 4D 6L from 18 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 5W 5D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.36 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 14W 8D 14L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 15W 10D 11L in their last 36 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Antalyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.56 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kasımpaşa
4
Draws
3
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 3, Antalyaspor have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-0 Antalyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 72%, Antalyaspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Kasımpaşa and 50% for Antalyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Kasımpaşa's games and 44% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 50% of Antalyaspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Kasımpaşa 2-4 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.72 xG and Antalyaspor 1.31 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Antalyaspor outscored their 1.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.27 / defence 1.20 against Antalyaspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 27%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Antalyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 61%, Antalyaspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.39 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.