Hatayspor 0-3 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Hatay Stadyumu plays host to Hatayspor versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 12 March 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Konyaspor (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Konyaspor have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Hatayspor's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Konyaspor's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Konyaspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Konyaspor hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Konyaspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Konyaspor have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 52% versus Konyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 58% | Konyaspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.50 xG and Konyaspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.852 / defence 0.928 | Konyaspor attack 0.949 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.301. Data: 60 Hatayspor games / 61 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 45% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Konyaspor 3.45. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Konyaspor lead the H2H ledger, but Hatayspor carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Hatayspor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 60% | Konyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 45% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Hatayspor 1.50 / Konyaspor 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.852 / def 0.928 | Konyaspor attack 0.949 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Konyaspor xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Hatayspor 0 - 3 Konyaspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 45% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hatayspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Konyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 3W.
What form are Hatayspor and Konyaspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.95x) against Hatayspor's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.90
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.65
1.15
Konyaspor xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.15 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 13D 26L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.55 PPG from 60 outings (25W 18D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Hatayspor against 1.55 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hatayspor's home form reads 14W 9D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.24 points per game from 29 outings (9W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.48 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 21W 13D 26L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 25W 18D 17L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.76 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 0-3 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
1
Draws
6
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Konyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Konyaspor have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Hatayspor 2-3 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Hatayspor, 69% for Konyaspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Hatayspor and 62% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Hatayspor's games and 69% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Hatayspor's matches and 62% of Konyaspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Konyaspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Hatayspor 0-3 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.50 xG and Konyaspor 1.15 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Konyaspor outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.93 against Konyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 45% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 29%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 58%, Konyaspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.27 PPG, Konyaspor 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.