Hatayspor 3-3 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Adana Demirspor (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hatayspor face Adana Demirspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Mersin Stadyumu to face Hatayspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hatayspor at Mersin Stadyumu this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Adana Demirspor are 1.70 PPG clear of Hatayspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (2.20 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hatayspor lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 0–3 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 63% of games.
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 29% versus Adana Demirspor 66%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hatayspor 74% | Adana Demirspor 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 0.84 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.671 / defence 1.130 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.039 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.323. Hatayspor's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Hatayspor games / 38 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 17% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 51%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 5.88 | Draw 3.03 | Adana Demirspor 1.96. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 0% | Adana Demirspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 17% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Hatayspor 0.84 / Adana Demirspor 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.671 / def 1.130 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.039 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Adana Demirspor xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Hatayspor 3 - 3 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 17% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 51% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (4 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 2 | Adana Demirspor 2W.
What form are Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.67) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (1.04x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
17%
6.01
33%
3.06
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.39
1.55
Adana Demirspor xG
6.01
17%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
4%
28.37
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 14.2 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.55 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 7W 7D 24L from 38 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 7L across 38 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Adana Demirspor by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hatayspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 4W 5D 10L from 19 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 8W 6D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatayspor are averaging 0.63 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 2.08 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Adana Demirspor in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Early Season
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 7W 7D 24L in their last 38 games (0.74 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 21W 10D 7L in their last 38 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Adana Demirspor's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 0.89 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 0-5 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
3
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-5 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatayspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 32%, Adana Demirspor 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Hatayspor and 58% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 58% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Adana Demirspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 74% of Adana Demirspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatayspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Hatayspor's matches and 58% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, as Hatayspor and Adana Demirspor drew 3-3 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 0.84 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.55 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Hatayspor beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.67 / defence 1.13 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 17% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 51%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 74%, Adana Demirspor 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.