Giresunspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Giresunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Fatih Karagümrük travel to Çotanak Stadyumu to take on Giresunspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Giresunspor stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Giresunspor have posted 2W 2D 3L at Çotanak Stadyumu — 1.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Giresunspor at 1.60 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Trading Patterns

Giresunspor in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.

Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 29% versus Fatih Karagümrük 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Giresunspor 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.05 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.724 / defence 1.048 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.995 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.076. Giresunspor's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Giresunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Giresunspor games / 14 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Giresunspor 32% | Draw 32% | Fatih Karagümrük 36%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Fatih Karagümrük 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Giresunspor 29% | Fatih Karagümrük 43% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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