Fenerbahçe 4-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 February 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Fenerbahçe are significantly better at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Fenerbahçe. A 1.10 PPG lead over Konyaspor (1.90 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fenerbahçe lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Konyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 58% versus Konyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 59% | Konyaspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.15 xG and Konyaspor 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.360 / defence 0.967 | Konyaspor attack 1.057 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.352. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Fenerbahçe games / 59 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 55% | Draw 21% | Konyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Konyaspor 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral: Fenerbahçe 40% | Konyaspor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 55% | Draw 21% | Konyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.15 / Konyaspor 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.360 / def 0.967 | Konyaspor attack 1.057 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Konyaspor xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Fenerbahçe 4 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 55% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Fenerbahçe 1W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 2W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.06x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
55%
1.82
21%
4.84
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.53
1.38
Konyaspor xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
12%
8.54
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
3%
35.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.38 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 35W 13D 11L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 26W 17D 16L from 59 games, 1.61 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Fenerbahçe against 1.61 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.07 PPG from 29 outings (18W 6D 5L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 10W 9D 10L from 29 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.53 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 35W 13D 11L in their last 59 games (2.00 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 26W 17D 16L in their last 59 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Konyaspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.07 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 7-1 on 10 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 7, Konyaspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Konyaspor 0-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 55%, Konyaspor 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Fenerbahçe and 59% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Fenerbahçe's games and 69% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 59% of Konyaspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Konyaspor 4-0 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.15 xG and Konyaspor 1.38 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.36 / defence 0.97 against Konyaspor attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 55% | Draw 21% | Konyaspor 24%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 59%, Konyaspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Konyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fenerbahçe 2.00 PPG, Konyaspor 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fenerbahçe win broke the near-deadlock. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.