Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Eyüpspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Eyüpspor travel to Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu to take on Fenerbahçe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fenerbahçe register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Eyüpspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Eyüpspor and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 62% versus Eyüpspor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 65% | Eyüpspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.92 xG and Eyüpspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.397 / defence 1.105 | Eyüpspor attack 0.860 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Fenerbahçe games / 37 Eyüpspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 55% | Draw 22% | Eyüpspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Eyüpspor 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 90% | Eyüpspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 55% | Draw 22% | Eyüpspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.92 / Eyüpspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.397 / def 1.105 | Eyüpspor attack 0.860 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Eyüpspor xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 55% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor?
Record (4 meetings): Fenerbahçe 2W | Draws 2 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.51
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.07
1.16
Eyüpspor xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
15%
6.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
3%
29.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.16 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 37 games, going 23W 11D 3L for 2.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 0.97 PPG from 37 outings (9W 9D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 12W 6D 0L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.95 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 23W 11D 3L in their last 37 games (2.16 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Eyüpspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.33 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2025, when Fenerbahçe won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-3 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 78%, Eyüpspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Fenerbahçe) and 44% (Eyüpspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Fenerbahçe's games and 44% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 44% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.