Fenerbahçe 3-3 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Eyüpspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Eyüpspor travel to Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu to take on Fenerbahçe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Fenerbahçe at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fenerbahçe register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Eyüpspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Eyüpspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 3–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 61% versus Eyüpspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 68% | Eyüpspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.08 xG and Eyüpspor 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.296 / defence 0.973 | Eyüpspor attack 0.834 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.128. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 69 Fenerbahçe games / 69 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 13%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Eyüpspor 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 80% | Eyüpspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.08 / Eyüpspor 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.296 / def 0.973 | Eyüpspor attack 0.834 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Eyüpspor xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Fenerbahçe 3 - 3 Eyüpspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 62% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor?
Record (3 meetings): Fenerbahçe 2W | Draws 1 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
62%
1.61
25%
4.02
13%
7.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.00
0.92
Eyüpspor xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
7.58
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
12%
8.04
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
2%
60.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.92 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 69 games, going 47W 16D 6L for 2.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.23 PPG from 69 outings (23W 16D 30L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 25W 7D 2L across 34 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 0.97 points per game from 34 outings (8W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.19 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
Eyüpspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 47W 16D 6L in their last 69 games (2.28 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 23W 16D 30L in their last 69 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Eyüpspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.41 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2025, when Fenerbahçe won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-3 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 68%, Eyüpspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Fenerbahçe) and 44% (Eyüpspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Fenerbahçe's games and 50% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 44% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 34, as Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor drew 3-3 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.08 xG and Eyüpspor 0.92 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eyüpspor outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.30 / defence 0.97 against Eyüpspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 13%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 68%, Eyüpspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.