Fenerbahçe 2-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Eyüpspor travel to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to take on Fenerbahçe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fenerbahçe at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Fenerbahçe, 0 for Eyüpspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 56% versus Eyüpspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 71% | Eyüpspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.06 xG and Eyüpspor 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.299 / defence 1.003 | Eyüpspor attack 0.715 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.249. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 71 Fenerbahçe games / 34 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 64% | Draw 20% | Eyüpspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Eyüpspor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 70% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 64% | Draw 20% | Eyüpspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 52% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.06 / Eyüpspor 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.299 / def 1.003 | Eyüpspor attack 0.715 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Eyüpspor xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 64% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor?
Record (1 meetings): Fenerbahçe 0W | Draws 1 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
64%
1.55
20%
4.94
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
2.96
0.90
Eyüpspor xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
2%
51.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.90 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 34 games, going 25W 6D 3L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.47 PPG from 34 outings (14W 8D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 13W 2D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 1.18 points per game from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.65 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.44 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
Eyüpspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 25W 6D 3L in their last 34 games (2.38 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 14W 8D 12L in their last 34 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Eyüpspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.41 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2025, when Fenerbahçe won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-3 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 53%, Eyüpspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 76% (Fenerbahçe) and 41% (Eyüpspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 53% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 41% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Eyüpspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Eyüpspor 2-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.06 xG and Eyüpspor 0.90 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.30 / defence 1.00 against Eyüpspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.00, drawn from 71/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 64% | Draw 20% | Eyüpspor 15%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 71%, Eyüpspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.47. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.