Fenerbahçe 2-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Ankaragücü.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Ankaragücü travel to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to take on Fenerbahçe. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fenerbahçe stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Ankaragücü have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ankaragücü's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Fenerbahçe have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Fenerbahçe hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Ankaragücü, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The historical record gives Fenerbahçe a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fenerbahçe trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Ankaragücü trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 53% versus Ankaragücü 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 69% | Ankaragücü 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.19 xG and Ankaragücü 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.597 / defence 0.956 | Ankaragücü attack 1.017 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.200. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.597 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Fenerbahçe games / 58 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 59% | Draw 22% | Ankaragücü 18%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Ankaragücü 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 70% | Ankaragücü 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 59% | Draw 22% | Ankaragücü 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.19 / Ankaragücü 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.597 / def 0.956 | Ankaragücü attack 1.017 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Ankaragücü xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü?
Fenerbahçe 2 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 59% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü?
Record (3 meetings): Fenerbahçe 3W | Draws 0 | Ankaragücü 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Ankaragücü (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.60x league average) is weighed against Ankaragücü's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
59%
1.68
22%
4.47
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.36
1.17
Ankaragücü xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
11%
8.94
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
2%
49.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.17 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fenerbahçe come into this having played 58 games, going 43W 8D 7L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ankaragücü sit at 1.21 PPG from 58 outings (18W 16D 24L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Ankaragücü — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fenerbahçe's home form reads 21W 3D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Ankaragücü have taken 1.11 points per game from 28 outings (8W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.24 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü in 62%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 43W 8D 7L in their last 58 games (2.36 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 18W 16D 24L in their last 58 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Ankaragücü away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.36 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Ankaragücü been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Ankaragücü in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fenerbahçe have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Ankaragücü specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Fenerbahçe
0
Draws
0
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü?
From 4 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 4, Ankaragücü have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Fenerbahçe 2-1 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Ankaragücü see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 57%, Ankaragücü 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Fenerbahçe and 50% for Ankaragücü. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Ankaragücü?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Fenerbahçe's games and 68% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 50% of Ankaragücü's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Ankaragücü tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Ankaragücü in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Ankaragücü 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Ankaragücü 2-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.19 xG and Ankaragücü 1.17 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.60 / defence 0.96 against Ankaragücü attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 59% | Draw 22% | Ankaragücü 18%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 69%, Ankaragücü 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.