Fatih Karagümrük 4-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 60%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rizespor make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rizespor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Rizespor are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Fatih Karagümrük 1W, Rizespor 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Rizespor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 41% versus Rizespor 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 41% | Rizespor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.96 xG and Rizespor 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.077 / defence 0.916 | Rizespor attack 0.821 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.219. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Fatih Karagümrük games / 22 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 15%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Rizespor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 60% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Rizespor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.96 / Rizespor 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.077 / def 0.916 | Rizespor attack 0.821 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Rizespor xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Fatih Karagümrük 4 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 60% chance of winning, Rizespor a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor?
Record (3 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 1W | Draws 1 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Rizespor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.08x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.82x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 58/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.08
15%
6.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.87
0.92
Rizespor xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
6.48
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
14%
7.07
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
2%
45.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.92 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 6D 11L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.59 PPG from 22 outings (10W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 4W 4D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Fatih Karagümrük are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Rizespor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Rizespor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.60 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Rizespor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won 4-0 on 28 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
2
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor?
From 6 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Rizespor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 40%, Rizespor 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Fatih Karagümrük and 70% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 30% of games; Rizespor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 70% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 70% of Rizespor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fatih Karagümrük run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Rizespor 4-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.96 xG and Rizespor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against Rizespor attack 0.82 / defence 1.22, drawn from 58/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 15%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 41%, Rizespor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.