Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Wednesday 10 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 4W 3D 3L at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Kayserispor arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Fatih Karagümrük 3W, Kayserispor 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2023, ended 2–0 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 59% versus Kayserispor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 61% | Kayserispor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.59 xG and Kayserispor 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.958 / defence 0.895 | Kayserispor attack 0.975 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.286. Data: 54 Fatih Karagümrük games / 54 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 47% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 26%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Kayserispor 3.85. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Fatih Karagümrük dominate the H2H record, yet Kayserispor are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kayserispor (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Fatih Karagümrük 20% | Kayserispor 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 47% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.59 / Kayserispor 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.958 / def 0.895 | Kayserispor attack 0.975 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Kayserispor xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 10 January 2024 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Fatih Karagümrük 4 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 47% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor?
Record (4 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 3W | Draws 0 | Kayserispor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Kayserispor's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.97x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.63
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.71
1.12
Kayserispor xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
5%
19.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.12 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 54 games, going 17W 17D 20L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.46 PPG from 54 outings (23W 10D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.46 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 10W 8D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 1.23 points per game from 26 outings (9W 5D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.48 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 17W 17D 20L in their last 54 games (1.26 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 23W 10D 21L in their last 54 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Kayserispor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.46 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 on 18 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 4, Kayserispor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Kayserispor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 54%, Kayserispor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Fatih Karagümrük and 62% for Kayserispor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Kayserispor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 58% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 62% of Kayserispor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fatih Karagümrük run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Kayserispor 4-1 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.59 xG and Kayserispor 1.12 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.96 / defence 0.90 against Kayserispor attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 47% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 26%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 61%, Kayserispor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.26 PPG, Kayserispor 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.