Fatih Karagümrük 2-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 7 as Fatih Karagümrük welcome Kasımpaşa to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fatih Karagümrük at 1.30 PPG versus Kasımpaşa's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fatih Karagümrük: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Kasımpaşa, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2023, ended 3–0 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fatih Karagümrük and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 64% and Kasımpaşa 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 62% | Kasımpaşa 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.30 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.850 / defence 0.860 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.011 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.296. Data: 42 Fatih Karagümrük games / 42 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 37% | Draw 35% | Kasımpaşa 28%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Kasımpaşa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Kasımpaşa 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 37% | Draw 35% | Kasımpaşa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.30 / Kasımpaşa 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.850 / def 0.860 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.011 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Kasımpaşa xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Fatih Karagümrük 2 - 3 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 37% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa?
Record (4 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 3W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
37%
2.73
35%
2.85
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.42
1.12
Kasımpaşa xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.12 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 14W 15D 13L from 42 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 18L across 42 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.36 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 7W 7D 6L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 5W 6D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.31 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 14W 15D 13L in their last 42 games (1.36 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.40 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2023, when Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 3-2 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 65%, Kasımpaşa 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 55% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 40% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 55% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-3 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.30 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.12 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.85 / defence 0.86 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 37% | Draw 35% | Kasımpaşa 28%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 62%, Kasımpaşa 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.36 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.