Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük host Giresunspor at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Giresunspor have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Giresunspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Fatih Karagümrük) versus 1.40 (Giresunspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, Giresunspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with Giresunspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fatih Karagümrük in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Giresunspor in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 46% versus Giresunspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Giresunspor 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.30 xG and Giresunspor 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.952 / defence 0.949 | Giresunspor attack 0.770 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.222. Data: 33 Fatih Karagümrük games / 33 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 44% | Draw 33% | Giresunspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Giresunspor 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 30% | Giresunspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 44% | Draw 33% | Giresunspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.30 / Giresunspor 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.952 / def 0.949 | Giresunspor attack 0.770 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Giresunspor xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Giresunspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Giresunspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Giresunspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 2 - 1 Giresunspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Giresunspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 44% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Giresunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 0 | Giresunspor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Giresunspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Giresunspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 0.95x the league average against Giresunspor's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Giresunspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
44%
2.29
33%
3.05
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.19
0.89
Giresunspor xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
6%
15.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.89 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 13W 8D 12L from 33 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Giresunspor, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 15L across 33 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.42 PPG, Giresunspor on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 8W 5D 3L from 16 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Giresunspor's away record stands at 5W 3D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.06 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Giresunspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 13W 8D 12L in their last 33 games (1.42 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 11W 7D 15L in their last 33 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Giresunspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.81 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Giresunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Giresunspor in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fatih Karagümrük and Giresunspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Giresunspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
1
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Giresunspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2023, when Giresunspor 2-2 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 44%, Giresunspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 38% (Giresunspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Giresunspor in 31%; Giresunspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Giresunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 44% of Giresunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 38% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fatih Karagümrük edge out Giresunspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Giresunspor 2-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.30 xG and Giresunspor 0.89 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against Giresunspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.10, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 44% | Draw 33% | Giresunspor 23%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 48%, Giresunspor 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Giresunspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.42 PPG, Giresunspor 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Giresunspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.